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Greg Conlon on Housing Crisis
Campaign Website Statements
Dec 20, 2011
Solving the Housing Crisis
Provide incentives to open up the job market to build new housing.The real estate construction industry is stifled today to build new homes and the banks are very reluctant to issue new loans without stringent reviews of the home buyer’s credit. It is also my understanding that there are a substantial number of homes in the nation where the homeowners have mortgages that they are paying each month where the home value is less than the remaining outstanding balance of the mortgage. These homeowners are trying to keep their loans current with the expectation that their home value would increase back to where it was when they purchased the home or greater. These homeowners are employed and able to pay the mortgage payments. If they ever lost their jobs they would be unable to make their mortgage payments. Therefore they are conserving much of their discretionary spending for the rainy day and save their money rather than spend it.
RECOMMENDATION:
I would propose that these home owners’ either (1) be allowed to restructure their loans at 80% or 90% of a realistic appraisal of their present home value or, (2) to refinance their loan at today’s lower interest rates. Either alternative would create a more affordable monthly payment and reduce the stress to the home owners having outstanding loans that are higher than the market value of their homes. But this would create a substantial loss to the banks but would free the homeowner to be more likely to spend their money saved on the new lower mortgage payment and spend some of their money available today that they are conserving for another rainy day. The banks are not losing money today as long as the home owner continues to perform by making his monthly payments.
However the entire residential real estate construction business, that has one of the highest levels of unemployment in the US, is struggling to construct and sell new homes due to the fear of new buyer’s not wanting to take the risk of buying a home and getting a new mortgage that again exceeds the appraised values sometime in the future if the home fair market value again decreases further. Under either alternative the loss to the government could be partially offset from the increase tax revenue from the 5% income taxes paid on the millions of repatriated cash that would otherwise sit overseas for years to come as discussed previously.
The first alternative recommendation would be to refinance the loans and have the government agency (Fanny Mae or Freddie Mac) that is appropriate to allow the banks to refinance the present loans outstanding even though the home value is less than the outstanding mortgage. This would substantially reduce the monthly payment of the homeowner because the lower current interest rate on the new mortgage compared the present higher interest rate on the existing mortgage. The recorded loss on the banks financial statements would reduce the banks earnings and equity and reduce their loan loss reserve requirement. I believe this loss should be shared with the government to the extent that it can be negotiated with the banks so there would not be serious bank failures caused by the write-down. An agreement would have to determine the sharing of the loss. I suggest a 50/50 sharing. This could be justified to clear the market of these loans and stimulate the construction and sale of new loans and create substantial number of jobs in the real estate construction and development business. The current Federal administration is now negotiating with the five major banks on providing some relief to the home owners. This would be positive and reduce the amount recommended here.
The second alternative would be for all of the present performing loans be restructured and reduced to somewhere where the home owner would have some market equity in their house. I suggest 90% of the appraised value of the home. The resulting loss to the bank of the write-down of the loan would then be shared with the bank and the government agency appropriate, as could be negotiated between them. A 50/50 split of the write-down would be my suggestion. Again this subsidy could be justified to clear the market of these loans and stimulate the construction and sale of new homes and create substantial number of new jobs.