Handicapping the Senate Races

All class 1 Senators will be up for re-election in 2012. Of these 33 Senate seats, 11 are occupied by Republicans and 22 are currently held by Democrats. Given that there are currently 51 Democratic Senators, 2 independents that caucus with the Democrats, and 47 Republicans, the Republican party can win a majority in the Senate by winning less than half of the seats up for re-election in 2012.

Of the 33 seats up for election, 7 have Senators that are not seeking re-election. This includes only 2 Republican seats with one located in Texas - a state not likely to elect a Democrat. Thus, 5 states that are currently held by Democrats will have no incumbent to give them an edge.

There are 11 races that can be said to be neutral at this point, meaning that they are not leaning to one side or the other. Of those 11 races, Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown and Maine Senator Olympia Snowe are the only Republican incumbents on that list. Their incumbency in those states should help, but strong showings by Obama voters could sway those elections.

The first tossup state is Pennsylvania with an April primary and incumbent Senator Robert Casey. Senator Casey beat incumbent Senator Rick Santorum in 2006 by a margin of 59% to 41%. However, the state selected a Republican in 2010 over a good Democratic candidate. Several quality candidates have stepped up to seek the Republican nomination, and the race may once again come down to how much President Obama sways voters of both sides to turn out. 

Nebraska, North Dakota, and Montana all have Democatic incumbents in states that President Obama lost in 2008. Senator Nelson won re-election in Nebraska handily in 2006 with 64% of the vote, but the state elected a Republican Senator two years later and has a Republican in every other Congressional office. Senator Conrad of North Dakota won re-election convincingly in 2006, but Senator Tester narrowly won his Montana seat in 2006. President Obama isn't expected to perform better in these states in 2012, and if the economy hasn't picked up significantly by November the Democrats could easily lose all three states.

There are several Presidential battleground states that have Senate elections in 2012. Many of these states have sitting Democratic representatives and are being classified as tossups for the Senate. These states include Florida, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Missouri. Florida has a long time incumbent with ties to the space industry. However, this may not help Senator Nelson considering that President Obama cancelled the Constellation program. The Virginia Democratic incumbent resigned, and Wisconsin threw out a very popular Democratic Senator in Russ Feingold just a year ago.

As of now, it is feasible that the Democrats will put forth a great deal of effort to win back the Massachusetts seat and be successful in that endeavor. It is also plausible that one or two other Republican incumbents will fall to either higher quality candidates or scandal.

It is also likely that the Republicans will win at least two of the three red states of Montana, Nebraska, and North Dakota. If the Republican party can win at least two of the four battleground states, then they will win the Senate. It doesn't seem feasible at this point that the Democrats can prevent this from happening given the numbers.

There are also a few races that are leaning Democratic now, that may change in the future. These races include Senator Manchin in West Virginia and Senator Brown in Ohio. In Ohio, the Republican machine is insistent upon nominating a state Treasurer whose only record is liberal college stances that he now opposes. In West Virginia, Senator Manchin's incumbent status gives him a slight edge, but the state may swing strongly anti-Obama this year and push Manchin out as well.

It looks likely that the 2012 elections will end with the Republicans losing 2 or 3 seats and winning at least 5 or 6 new seats. Over the next few weeks, we will be looking at each race independently and making a prediction based more on the individual candidates likely to win the primary.